◆ Development Command Center · Epps.ai
Command
Dashboard
Dashboard
Sunbelt Residential · Phoenix, AZ · 216 units · $42.5M total project cost
⚑Single-project demonstration · AI-assisted investor communications require operator review prior to LP distribution.
6.8%
Yield on Cost
▲ Target: 6.5%
68%
Draw Complete
$28.9M of $42.5M
0%
Lease-Up
Pre-leasing Q3 2025
+2.1%
Cost Variance
▼ $892K over budget
On Track
Construction Status
▲ Month 8 of 18
$2,150
Target Avg Rent
▲ Market: $2,080
0 days
Schedule Variance
▲ On schedule
2 flags
Risk Flags
▼ Review required
◆ Development Pipeline
1
Land
✓ Complete
2
Entitlement
✓ Complete
3
Construction
● Active — Month 8
4
Lease-Up
◷ Q3 2025
5
Stabilization
◷ Q2 2026
⚠ Active Risk Flags
Lumber cost escalation — +8% since contract
Lumber pricing has increased 8% since GMP contract execution. Contingency buffer at 62% consumed. Monitor through Month 10.
HVAC lead time — 6-week delay risk
HVAC equipment lead times have extended to 20 weeks (was 14). Order placed — monitoring delivery to preserve schedule.
Recent Activity
Oct 15, 2024
Foundation Complete — All 216 Units
Concrete pour complete. Site superintendent sign-off obtained.
Nov 2, 2024
Draw 5 Funded — $4.2M
Construction lender funded draw. 68% of $42.5M total drawn.
Nov 2024 — Current
Framing — Phase 1 (108 units)
Phase 1 framing 72% complete. On schedule for Dec 15 MEP rough-in.
⚠ Lumber cost variance — see risk flags
◆ Returns at Stabilization (Projected)
14.2%
Levered IRR
2.1x
Equity Multiple
6.8%
Yield on Cost
5.25%
Exit Cap
Year 7
Target Exit
◆ Stage 1 · Complete
Land &
Screening
Screening
Site acquisition, due diligence, and entitlement feasibility assessment.
◆ Stage 1 complete. Land acquired January 2024. Site fully entitled for 216-unit BTR community.
◆ Site Summary
Site Details
Address: 4200 E Warner Rd, Chandler, AZ 85226
APN: 302-45-888
Lot Size: 18.4 acres
Zoning: R-3 Multifamily (BTR entitled)
Density: 11.7 units / acre
Land Cost: $8.2M ($450K/acre)
Close Date: January 15, 2024
APN: 302-45-888
Lot Size: 18.4 acres
Zoning: R-3 Multifamily (BTR entitled)
Density: 11.7 units / acre
Land Cost: $8.2M ($450K/acre)
Close Date: January 15, 2024
Screening Assessment
Risk Score: 18 / 100 — Low Risk
Environmental: Phase I clear — no RECs
Title: Clean — no exceptions
Utilities: All utilities to site boundary
Traffic: No TIS required (below threshold)
School District: Chandler USD — A-rated
Flood Zone: Zone X — no flood insurance required
Environmental: Phase I clear — no RECs
Title: Clean — no exceptions
Utilities: All utilities to site boundary
Traffic: No TIS required (below threshold)
School District: Chandler USD — A-rated
Flood Zone: Zone X — no flood insurance required
◆ Comparable Land Transactions
| Address | Acres | Units | Price/Acre | Close | vs. Subject |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3800 S Price Rd, Chandler | 14.2 | 168 | $485K | Aug 2023 | +8% |
| 2100 W Chandler Blvd | 22.1 | 260 | $420K | Nov 2023 | -7% |
| 4500 E Ray Rd, Gilbert | 19.8 | 225 | $465K | Jan 2024 | +3% |
| Subject — Sunbelt Residential | 18.4 | 216 | $450K | Jan 2024 | — |
◆ Stage 2 · Complete
Entitlement
Zoning approvals, permits, and regulatory clearances.
◆ All entitlements secured. Building permits issued March 2024. Construction commenced April 1, 2024.
◆ Entitlement Log
| Item | Authority | Applied | Approved | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rezoning — R-3 BTR | City of Chandler P&Z | Jul 2023 | Oct 2023 | ✓ Approved |
| Site Plan Approval | Chandler Development Svcs | Oct 2023 | Dec 2023 | ✓ Approved |
| Grading Permit | Maricopa County | Jan 2024 | Jan 2024 | ✓ Issued |
| Building Permit — Phase 1 | City of Chandler | Feb 2024 | Mar 2024 | ✓ Issued |
| Building Permit — Phase 2 | City of Chandler | Feb 2024 | Mar 2024 | ✓ Issued |
| SWPPP / NOI | Arizona DEQ | Mar 2024 | Mar 2024 | ✓ Issued |
◆ Development Fees Paid
| Fee Type | Amount | Paid |
|---|---|---|
| Water / Sewer Impact Fees | $1,242,000 | Mar 2024 |
| Parks & Recreation Impact Fees | $388,800 | Mar 2024 |
| School Facilities Fees | $162,000 | Mar 2024 |
| Building Permit Fees | $84,500 | Mar 2024 |
| Total Development Fees | $1,877,300 | Mar 2024 |
◆ Stage 3 · Active — Month 8 of 18
Construction
Tracking
Tracking
GMP contract · draw schedule · cost variance · milestone tracking
$28.9M
Total Drawn
68% of $42.5M GMP
$13.6M
Remaining Budget
▼ Contingency 38% remaining
+$892K
Cost Overrun
▼ 2.1% over GMP
0 days
Schedule Variance
▲ On schedule
◆ Draw Schedule
◆ Construction Progress by Trade
Site Work100%
Foundation100%
Framing — Ph 1 (108 units)72%
Framing — Ph 2 (108 units)15%
MEP Rough-In0%
Exterior / Envelope0%
◆ Key Milestones
Apr 1, 2024 — Actual
Construction Start / Mobilization
GC mobilized. Site cleared and graded.
Jun 15, 2024 — Actual
Foundation Complete — All 216 Units
All footings poured. Third-party inspection passed.
Nov 2024 — In Progress
Framing — Phase 1 (108 units)
72% complete. Target Dec 15 completion.
⚠ Lumber cost variance +8%
Jan 15, 2025 — Planned
MEP Rough-In Start
Mechanical, electrical, plumbing rough-in begins Phase 1.
Sep 30, 2025 — Target
Certificate of Occupancy — Phase 1
108 units ready for pre-leasing and move-in.
Dec 31, 2025 — Target
Construction Complete — All 216 Units
Full CO received. Transition to operations team.
◆ Stage 4 · Upcoming — Q3 2025
Lease-Up
Planning
Planning
Pre-leasing strategy, absorption targets, concession management.
◆ Pre-leasing begins Q3 2025 targeting 216 units at $2,150/month average rent. Stabilization at 93%+ occupancy projected Q2 2026.
◆ Lease-Up Assumptions
Absorption Plan
Pre-Leasing Start: Jul 1, 2025
Phase 1 CO (108 units): Sep 30, 2025
Phase 2 CO (108 units): Dec 31, 2025
Target Monthly Absorption: 18–22 units
Stabilization Target: Jun 30, 2026
Stabilized Occupancy: 93%+
Phase 1 CO (108 units): Sep 30, 2025
Phase 2 CO (108 units): Dec 31, 2025
Target Monthly Absorption: 18–22 units
Stabilization Target: Jun 30, 2026
Stabilized Occupancy: 93%+
Rent & Revenue
Target Avg Rent: $2,150/unit/month
Market Avg Rent: $2,080/unit/month
Premium vs Market: +3.4%
Concession Budget: 1 month free on 13-month lease
Stabilized Gross Revenue: $5.57M/year
Stabilized NOI: $3.43M/year
Market Avg Rent: $2,080/unit/month
Premium vs Market: +3.4%
Concession Budget: 1 month free on 13-month lease
Stabilized Gross Revenue: $5.57M/year
Stabilized NOI: $3.43M/year
◆ Competitive Set
| Property | Units | Avg Rent | Occupancy | Concessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milestone Chandler | 204 | $2,025 | 95% | None |
| The Avery at Gilbert | 180 | $2,145 | 92% | ½ month free |
| Vantage South Mountain | 240 | $2,210 | 88% | 1 month free |
| Sunbelt Residential (projected) | 216 | $2,150 | 93%+ | 1 month free |
◆ Stage 5 · Planned — Q2 2026
Stabilization
Portfolio reporting, NOI optimization, and exit preparation.
◆ Stabilization target: Q2 2026 at 93%+ occupancy. Yield on cost 6.8% supports institutional sale or recapitalization.
◆ Stabilized Pro Forma
| Line Item | Per Unit / Mo | Annual | % of EGI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Potential Rent | $2,150 | $5,572,800 | 100% |
| Less: Vacancy (7%) | ($390,096) | -7.0% | |
| Less: Concessions (1%) | ($55,728) | -1.0% | |
| Effective Gross Income | $5,126,976 | ||
| Operating Expenses | ($1,692,000) | -33.0% | |
| Net Operating Income | $3,434,976 | 67.0% | |
| Yield on Cost (÷ $42.5M TPC) | 6.8% |
◆ Exit Scenarios
| Exit Strategy | Cap Rate | Gross Value | Net Proceeds | Equity Multiple |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case — Institutional Sale | 5.25% | $65.4M | $28.2M | 2.1x |
| Upside — REIT Contribution | 4.75% | $72.3M | $34.8M | 2.6x |
| Downside — Wider Market | 6.00% | $57.2M | $21.4M | 1.6x |
◆ Budget & Cost Tracking
Development
Budget
Budget
GMP contract · draw tracking · cost variance · contingency status
◆ Project Cost Summary
| Category | Budget | Committed | Drawn to Date | Remaining | Variance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Land | $8,200,000 | $8,200,000 | $8,200,000 | $0 | — |
| Hard Costs — Site | $2,150,000 | $2,150,000 | $2,150,000 | $0 | On budget |
| Hard Costs — Vertical | $24,800,000 | $25,420,000 | $14,200,000 | $11,220,000 | +$620K |
| Soft Costs | $3,200,000 | $3,472,000 | $3,100,000 | $372,000 | +$272K |
| Financing Costs | $2,150,000 | $2,150,000 | $1,250,000 | $900,000 | On track |
| Contingency (5%) | $2,000,000 | $2,000,000 | $0 | $2,000,000 | 62% consumed |
| Total Project Cost | $42,500,000 | $43,392,000 | $28,900,000 | $14,492,000 | +$892K (+2.1%) |
◆ Contingency Status
Contingency Used62% consumed ($1,240K of $2,000K)
⚠ Contingency at 62% consumed with 10 months of construction remaining. Cost escalation risk on lumber and HVAC requires monitoring. Recommend cost mitigation review before Draw 6.
◆ Schedule & Milestones
Project
Schedule
Schedule
◆ Master Schedule
| Milestone | Planned | Forecast | Variance | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Construction Start | Apr 1, 2024 | Apr 1, 2024 | 0 days | ✓ Complete |
| Foundation Complete | Jun 15, 2024 | Jun 15, 2024 | 0 days | ✓ Complete |
| Framing Ph 1 Complete | Dec 15, 2024 | Dec 15, 2024 | 0 days | In Progress |
| Framing Ph 2 Complete | Mar 15, 2025 | Mar 15, 2025 | 0 days | Planned |
| MEP Rough-In Complete | Jun 30, 2025 | Jul 14, 2025 | +14 days | Planned |
| Insulation / Drywall Complete | Jul 31, 2025 | Aug 14, 2025 | +14 days | Planned |
| CO — Phase 1 (108 units) | Sep 30, 2025 | Sep 30, 2025 | 0 days | Planned |
| CO — Phase 2 (216 units) | Dec 31, 2025 | Dec 31, 2025 | 0 days | Planned |
| Stabilization (93%+ occ) | Jun 30, 2026 | Jun 30, 2026 | 0 days | Planned |
◆ Schedule on track. HVAC lead time risk identified — 6-week extension risk on MEP start. Mitigation: expedited HVAC order placed Oct 2024. Monitoring for Dec 15 confirmation of delivery.
◆ Investor Updates
Investor
Communications
Communications
Generate and distribute construction updates, quarterly reports, and development memos.
◆ Generate Development Update
✦
Olesya — Draft Investor Update
◆ Past Updates
| Update | Type | Date | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| October 2024 Construction Update | Monthly | Nov 1, 2024 | |
| Q3 2024 Quarterly Report | Quarterly | Oct 15, 2024 | |
| Draw 5 Funding Notice | Draw Notice | Nov 2, 2024 |
◆ Reports & Exports
Export
Center
Center
Generate quarterly reports, development updates, and board decks.
◆ Available Exports
📋 Quarterly Development Report
Full development report — KPIs, pipeline status, budget variance, schedule, risk flags, financial snapshot. PDF format.
📊 Board Update Deck
Board-formatted development memo with executive summary, pipeline, budget status, and risk register.
✉ Investor Update Letter
LP-format construction update letter. Warm, narrative tone. Covers milestone progress, budget status, and timeline.
💰 Budget Variance Report
Detailed budget vs actual by category. GC report format. Contingency status and cost-to-complete analysis.